The NFL Futures Bet You Should Make ... Right Now

^{Our resident handicapper makes his case for why he’s so confident the Philadelphia Eagles will soar all the way to the Super Bowl. (Image: Matt Slocum / AP)}

The Philadelphia Eagles should be favored to win the NFC Championship.

But they’re not. Fortunately, the mispriced odds provide us with an opportunity.

In this column, I'll explain why overlooking the Eagles at this moment is a mistake. Moreover, I’ll explain why betting on any of the other teams listed as the current favorites would be an even bigger mistake.

Given this week's unique circumstances pertaining to each contending team, sports bettors now have a rare value-based wagering enticement on what I consider to be the best NFL futures wager on the board.

Note: The following data and comments apply only to the timeframe prior to NFL Week 16. Also please note that all information contained in this report is for information purposes only. Please make your own decisions and always bet within your financial means.

Lions Expected to Roar

The Detroit Lions currently hold the top spot as the odds-on favorite to reach and ultimately win this year's Super Bowl. If Detroit makes it to the NFC Championship game, and then wins it, that would be the Lions’ first Super Bowl appearance in their long and often painful history. The last Lions’ championship appearance (and win) was way back in 1957, 10 years before the first Super Bowl game was played.

Understandably, there’s widespread sentimental attachment to the insufferable Lions reaching the Super Bowl. Those emotions have fueled significant action in betting markets which now rank Detroit as the co-favorites to reign supreme in this year’s championship. Ironically, the Buffalo Bills – another long-cursed franchise seeking its first Super Bowl victory – is the other co-favorite. It’s easy to appreciate why a Detroit-Buffalo Super Bowl matchup would be a wildly popular, potential ratings-smashing success.

However, let’s not succumb to sentimentality. As bettors, we try to immunize ourselves from emotional attachment (we can only hope). It’s essential to not get caught up in the hype. In fact, this widespread hype now gives us an outstanding opportunity to adopt a contrarian outlook and take advantage of more attractive pricing on an opposing team. 

Pro Tip #1: In a closed sports betting market, hype on some teams creates value on others.

Super Bowl Futures are Usually a Bad Bet

Wait! Didn’t I state my opinion that the Eagles are a great bet? 

Yes, I did. Now, let me explain …

Sportsbooks offer odds on which team will win the next Super Bowl. These odds fluctuate as the season goes along. Some winning teams which put up impressive victories improve their chances, while others lose critical games and fall out of public favor. Then, those odds drop. 

Here’s a look at the current favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, which will be played on Sunday, Feb. 9, 2025:

[Odds courtesy of Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas]

Detroit +400
Buffalo +440
Philadelphia +460
Kansas City +500
Baltimore +810

Note: Hard to believe, but 23 of 32 NFL teams theoretically still have a chance to win the Super Bowl as of Dec. 16, 2024. However, my list above focuses only on the betting favorites.

So, why is picking one team and then wagering on them to win the Super Bowl a bad bet?

It all comes down to math. The biggest problem is bettors are not getting anywhere close to the true odds. Sure, sportsbooks will take a cut of the action, which is called the “vig.” Unfortunately, many futures prices include grotesquely inflated house advantages (i.e., the “hold” is too high). Potential winning payouts are intentionally kept low. 

This is how sportsbooks rake in substantial profits, which results from underpaying the winning team and those futures tickets. Many sportsbooks’ enjoy a house edge of 20-25 percent on futures bets – which makes them unplayable for any serious bettor. This whopping vig percentage is in stark contrast to individual games with standard pointspreads and totals, as well as player props, many of which include less than a 10 percent house edge.

Pro Tip #2: The sportsbooks’ high “hold” percentages on futures wagers makes the vast majority of them unplayable, except purely as entertainment.  

Here’s Another Reason to Avoid Super Bowl Futures Wagering

Crazy as it sounds, I don’t like to gamble. I prefer to invest. At least, that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Let’s face it: Handicapping football games is difficult. Picking the Super Bowl winner is tough. It’s impossible to predict what will happen from week-to-week during the regular season, let alone a championship game kicking off two months from now. 

A persuasive argument can be made for any of the five current favorites – including the Lions, Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and/or Ravens. Moreover, the secondary tier of contending teams is also a compelling group – which includes the Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and Rams. Anyone who’s followed the NFL this season understands that any one of these teams could win the Super Bowl with the right path, strong performances, and a few breaks along the way. Hence, picking one team to emerge at the top of the heap becomes a tall task fraught with risk.

Indeed, it’s quite possible, even likely, this year’s Super Bowl could be a matchup of excessive uncertainty. Just one example: If you want to try and forecast the winner of a hypothetical Chiefs-Lions matchup, please go ahead. Be my guest. I have no idea who would win that game, just as no one can predict the winner of any Super Bowl contest that includes any of the five favorites matched against each other.

Betting on the Super Bowl winner is pure gambling. However, betting on the conference championship winner(s) strikes me as a legitimate investment. Next, I’ll explain why there’s a difference in these different types of futures wagers.

Why I’m Not Betting on the AFC Championship Winner

Hey, what’s going on here? All I’ve been writing about so far is what not to bet on.

I’ve already expressed an opinion as to why betting on the Super Bowl winner is way too risky and provides little or no value – no matter which team is picked. This same argument can be extended to the American Football Conference (AFC). I believe that given the high quality of teams in the AFC this season, those same arguments apply to that conference as well.

The road to the AFC Championship this season very likely leads through either Kansas City or Buffalo. The Chiefs enjoy a two-game edge in wins for the home field advantage throughout the playoffs (and more important–a first round bye), with three regular season games still to go. 

Through Week 15, most observers would probably agree the Bills have looked like the more solid and consistent team. But the Chiefs always seem to find ways to win, sometimes in the most outlandish manner. Given Kansas City’s impressive record in AFC Championship games (2019-present) – which includes six straight appearances and four wins – wagering on a non-Chiefs matchup seems foolish. It’s no surprise then that betting markets agree that a Kansas City-Buffalo game is the most likely AFC Championship game matchup.

However, the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers may have something to say about that. Both teams are well-coached and include former Super Bowl champions. Either team could upset the Chiefs and/or Bills and shake up the AFC picture. Meanwhile, any scenario involving the Chargers, Broncos, or Texans seems like a longshot.

Summarizing the current picture looks like this: Two great teams are likely to meet in the AFC Championship game. However, two very good teams could pull off upsets. Each one of these four AFC elites is priced accurately, thus providing no betting value. And to repeat myself, the hold is prohibitive. 

Let’s add one more element of unpredictability to the current AFC picture: Injuries. Right now, former MVP and Chief’s all-world QB Patrick Mahomes is nursing a leg injury. This could be serious. His health could determine the outcome in the AFC this season. Given that QB injuries are so consequential to results, yet also are so impossible to forecast, the AFC Conference picture becomes even murkier.

Betting on any AFC team to win either the conference championship or Super Bowl is fine for entertainment. But it’s also just a gamble based on the strength of multiple teams and circumstances.     

Pro Tip #3: Avoid futures with betting pools loaded with multiple outstanding teams, particularly if they’re impacted by injuries.

Why I’m Betting on the NFC Championship Winner

What makes the NFC so different from the AFC this season? 

The NFC has several notable distinctions at the moment. First and foremost, betting markets have been slow to react to changing conditions. Odds based on outdated perceptions are ripe with opportunity.

A major factor in winning the conference championship is getting a first-round bye in the playoffs. Two teams have the first-round off in the playoffs -- which are the top seeds from each conference. Those two teams are the only teams out of the combined playoff field of 14 which will have a week off. Not only do these top seeds avoid risking an upset loss in the Wild Card round, they also have an extra week to get healthier and game plan for the Divisional round. They're also awarded with home field advantage for each playoff game. This is a powerful edge. Since 1990, 50 percent of all Super Bowl teams (32 of 64) have been top seeds.

Three NFC teams have a realistic chance at earning the top seed – including Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. All three teams are tied with identical 12-2 records. However, the Lions enjoy the edge because of tiebreakers (conference wins and losses during the regular season). But should Detroit really be the favorite right now?

With three weeks still to play, take a look at the schedule of opponents for these three teams:

Detroit 

- at Chicago
- at San Francisco
- home vs. Minnesota

Philadelphia

- at Washington
- home vs. Dallas
- home vs. NY Giants

Minnesota

- at Seattle
- home vs. Green Bay
- at Detroit 

Note how Philadelphia enjoys several advantages going forward. First, they play two home games, while their rivals must play two road games. Second, Detroit and Minnesota will face each other in the final week, which eliminates the loser of that game. Third, Philadelphia enjoys a far easier schedule. Washington could pose trouble this coming weekend, but the final two weeks should be easy victories. It’s reasonable to expect the Eagles will win all three games. If Philadelphia wins three games and the Lions lose a game, the Eagles earn the top seed. As for Minnesota, that’s a murderously difficult schedule ahead.

Pro Tip #4: Betting futures on a conference winner must take into account which team is most likely to be the top seed, thus earning a first-round bye, which significantly improves the odds of that team reaching the Super Bowl.

Fly Eagles Fly!

If Philadelphia earns the NFC’s top seed, they’ll be very difficult to beat in the playoffs. Here are several reasons why the Eagles deserve to be favored:

– The Eagles are riding the NFL’s longest win streak at the moment, which is currently at 10 games. If they run the table the next three weeks (they’ll be favored in all three games), Philadelphia enters the playoffs on the 13-game winning streak.

– The Eagles are 6-1 straight up at home this season, which is expected to be 8-1 at season’s end (hosting home games vs. the Cowboys and Giants, which will be big underdogs). Beating the Eagles in Philadelphia (in frigid January) won’t be easy.

– The Eagles may be the healthiest of any of the top-five betting favorites in either conference. Contrast this fact with Detroit’s injury situation right now, which is dire (more on this point to come). Since the Lions are the primary threat in the NFC as favorites to win the conference, the contrast in injuries to both of these teams cannot be overstated.

– The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in rushing offense (yards per game). The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in total defense (yards allowed per game). A great rushing attack and a great defense are the two most important factors in winning playoff games. A combination of these two factors is lethal. 

– The Eagles are a proven winner capable of playing well outdoors in the cold.  Contrast this fact with the two primary threats to the Eagles in the NFC – Detroit and Minnesota – which are indoor (dome) teams. Does anyone think the Lions or Vikings would be favored to win in Philadelphia in late January? 

Note: Green Bay could be a problem for the Eagles, assuming they reach the NFC Championship game–the Packers are an outdoor team built for the cold. However, the Packers would have to win two playoff games to get there, including perhaps upsetting the Lions in Detroit.

– Many bettors (and fans) may have forgotten that Philadelphia won the NFC Championship just two seasons ago, destroying San Francisco by 24 points at home. Many of the Eagles' players have been in this pressure spot before, whereas few players from the other teams in the NFC have ever won a conference championship game. Experience advantage to Philadelphia. 

Pro Tip #5: Not only is Philadelphia’s route to the NFC Championship easier than other teams, but they also enjoy several advantages in statistical categories that are critical to winning in the playoffs.

Don’t Bet Teams – Bet Numbers

This might be my favorite sports handicapping saying of all time.

So far, I've shared several points about futures betting, the Philadelphia Eagles, and their primary threats to winning this season’s NFC Championship. However, it all comes down to numbers. By that, I mean -- the odds.

We must always weigh the odds, and then find the best number possible.

Here are the current odds of winning the NFC Championship:

Detroit +215
Philadelphia +190

Wait! What happened?

When I began penning this article last night, the Lions were favored. Now, the Eagles are favored to win the NFC. This all goes to show that sports gambling markets are volatile and when we see a good number, we should seize it.

Fortunately, I have several sportsbook options. Here’s the numbers from some other Las Vegas sportsbooks (numbers are current as of Thursday morning):

Current Odds of Philadelphia Eagles Winning the NFC Championship:

MGM +210
William Hill +200
Westgate +195
Circa +190
Stations +180

This makes my decision easy. I’m off to the MGM to make my futures wager.

Pro Tip #6: Like the old Smokey Robinson and the Miracle’s song goes, “bettor shop around.” (okay, it’s “you better shop around”–but I’m customizing it here for sports gamblers.)

Fading the Toothless Lions

A treatise on the emerging and very fluid NFC playoff picture would be woefully incomplete without discussing the fragile Detroit Lions and their injury status at the moment. Earlier, I called it “dire.” Actually, it may be worse than that – which is just one reason why the market on this is shifting as I write and as you read this.

Let’s agree the Lions are the major threat to the Eagles as the prospective NFC favorite. Now, let’s examine their status as of pre-Week 16:

– In their last three games, the Lions have failed to cover a pointspread. All were home games, where they should have rolled. They were fortunate to steal a 3-point win hosting Chicago on Thanksgiving Day (a late Chicago coaching blunder cost the Bears the massive upset). They beat the rival Packers at home on a late field goal. And the Lions got demolished by Buffalo last week. This is not the look of a betting favorite to win the NFC.

– The Lions defense has surrendered a whopping 99 points in their last three games. That mark is the worst in the NFL. Detroit’s defense has always been suspect, as they tend to win games by outscoring opponents. Last week’s 48-42 loss to Buffalo showed that might not be possible when facing strong opponents. 

– The Lions are utterly decimated with injuries right now:

"The Lions' injured reserve list was already overloaded with defenders — star defensive end Aiden Hutchinson (broken leg), defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (knee), linebacker Malcom Rodriguez (torn ACL), cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (hamstring), safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (undisclosed), linebacker Alex Anzalone (forearm), linebacker Derrick Barnes (knee), linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin (neck), defensive end Marcus Davenport (triceps), defensive tackle David Bada (Achilles), defensive end John Cominsky (knee) and defensive end Nate Lynn (shoulder). That’s a dozen, plus three more during the (Buffalo Bills loss).

Read More: Lions' injuries are becoming recurring nightmare in otherwise dream season

– Speaking of injuries, Detroit just lost one of its best offensive players for the season. RB David Montgomery, one half of the great Lions rushing backfield is done for the year.

– Finally, as painful as it is to write this, we can’t trust Lions head coach Dan Campbell. He’s done an amazing job turning around the Lions. His team, and game decisions, are fun to watch. However, he’s made some monumental blunders from the sideline. Consider last week’s moronic onside kick with nearly 9 minutes left in the game, and Detroit trailing by 10 points. Onside kicks are nearly impossible to pull off, especially with this season’s rule changes. Campbell’s decision to attempt an onside kick in what was still a winnable game reveals his risky coaching to be a double-edged sword. I’ll fade that uncertainty in the playoffs versus a good team like the Eagles. 

– Despite all these problems, and the very realistic prospect that the Detroit Lions could end up as the #2 seed, and would then play an extra game – and assuming they win both games in the first two rounds (likely facing the Packers again), and then as an indoors dome team, might have to play a conference championship game outdoors in freezing weather, with so many injuries, without it’s best running back, makes this an ideal situation to fade.

Note that “fading” a bet, means taking the opposite side (or the other team). 

Pro Tip #7: Sometimes, betting against one team actually means pouncing on another – and that means identifying the primary threat, finding the best number, and firing with a wager. Translation: Fade Detroit. Pounce on Philadelphia.

Summation:

– The Philadelphia Eagles are the most well-rounded team in the NFC at the moment, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. They are also the healthiest team now entering the late- and post-season.

– The Eagles enjoy the clearest path to the top seed in the NFC. Becoming the #1 seed gives them enormous advantages versus other teams. Philadelphia is very likely to be favored by more than a FG in every game they play until they (potentially) reach the Super Bowl.

– The Eagles’ obvious advantages are based on their style of play, rooted in the NFL’s #1 rushing offense (Saquon Barkley appears to be in a mission) combined with #1 ranked defense. History shows this to be a winning formula for winning championships.

– All other playoff teams have far more obstacles than the Eagles to winning the conference championship. Assuming Philadelphia gets the top seed, all they must do is win two games. All other opponents face a much tougher path.

– Finally, we are getting a great price…..at +210.  That’s a terrific number. Getting back more than double our money on all of the above is an exceptional value. And–value is what we should be seeking when betting on any sport, especially the NFL where the margins are slim. 

Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is?

As a public NFL handicapper, I often get asked – do I actually bet on the games and picks I recommend?

The answer is – yes. 

Here’s my betting ticket from the MGM Sportsbook (my wager was made at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, which is part of the MGM chain):

Fly Eagles fly!

Editor's note: Casinos.com is not responsible for any jinxing or perception of jinxing that may or may not occur from posting this pic. (Image: Nolan Dalla)